Loserthink

Scott Adams

Highlights

  • If all you know is how many times someone hit a target, it is loserthink to judge how accurate they are. You also need to know how many times they missed.
  • the only way one could be dead certain that the consensus of scientists is right on any topic that can’t be replicated in a controlled experiment, or proven true by math, is by ignoring the entire fields of psychology, economics, history, and—if you are older—your own experience.
  • Mental prison: The illusions and unproductive thinking that limit our ability to see the world clearly and act upon it rationally.
  • We humans think we are good judges of what others are thinking. We are not. In fact, we are dreadful at it.
  • If your opinion depends on reliably knowing another person’s inner thoughts, you might be experiencing loserthink.
  • If an ordinary explanation fits the facts, but you have chosen an extraordinary interpretation instead, you might have too much confidence in your opinion.
  • People who have good arguments use them. People who do not have good arguments try to win by labeling.
  • In science, the simplest explanation that fits the facts is preferred. In life, we are all under the illusion that our explanations of things are the simplest ones.
  • The common situation—and the one you should treat as true—is that we are deeply flawed humans pretending to be otherwise. You aren’t the one defective person in the room. Ever.
  • For your convenience, I summarize these techniques here. Tell yourself, “I’m good at this” Learn to breathe properly Improve your posture Manage your body language If you are an introvert, keep some questions in your back pocket so you can guide conversations and always have something to say Make a good first impression with a solid handshake and eye contact Remind yourself of the skills you are good at Exercise regularly to drain off nervous energy
  • If you think ego is who you are, as opposed to a tool you can dial up and down as needed, you might be experiencing loserthink.
  • Put yourself in potentially embarrassing situations on a regular basis for practice. If you get embarrassed as planned, watch how one year later you are still alive. Maybe you even have a funny story because of it.
  • Note how other people’s embarrassments mean little to you when you are an observer. That’s how much your embarrassments mean to them: nothing.
  • If you can’t think of anything good about a situation, and yet you observe that others can, you might be experiencing loserthink.
  • It is helpful to think of your mind as having limited shelf space. If you fill that space with negative thoughts, it will set your mental filters to negativity and poor health, and there will be no space left for healthy, productive, and uplifting thoughts. You can control your mental shelf space—to a degree—by manipulating your physical surroundings.
  • If you allow your mental shelf space to fill up with negative thoughts, you are punishing yourself with an unhealthy form of loserthink.
  • If you can’t imagine any other explanation for a set of facts, it might be because you are bad at imagining things.
  • History (even the fake kind) can be useful for persuading others through guilt. But don’t make the mistake of persuading yourself that history should matter to your choices today.
  • Focusing on the past when the present offers sufficient paths to success is loserthink. It is better to focus on your own systems for success, and when you succeed, watch how winning fixes most problems.
  • Humans use pattern recognition to understand their world. Humans are very bad at pattern recognition. And they don’t know
  • History doesn’t repeat, at least not in any way you can use to accurately predict the future. (The exceptions are simple situations.)
  • Belief in slippery slopes is loserthink. It is more useful to look at forces and counterforces to see where things are likely to end up.
  • If you think more privacy is always better, that is a case of loserthink. Every situation is different. Sometimes privacy is the problem that prevents the solution.
  • If you are wondering how skeptical you should be about expert advice on complicated issues, keep in mind that the next expert probably has no respect for the last expert. And vice versa.
  • The best solution to a problem is often unrelated to who is at fault. It is loserthink to believe otherwise.
  • If you analyze a complicated situation with multiple variables in play, and you conclude that only one of them was decisive, there’s a good chance you are practicing loserthink.
  • You will be most tempted to default to one-variable thinking in the following situations in your life: Figuring out why a relationship isn’t working Understanding the motivation of friends and family Making business decisions in complicated situations I
  • If you find yourself obsessing over the accuracy of facts versus the direction those facts will lead you, you might be in a mental prison.
  • It is loserthink to take political hyperbole literally.
  • It is loserthink to attack an opponent by acting as dumb as they act. It might feel good, but it isn’t a winning strategy.
  • Goals are for loserthinkers. Systems are for winners.
  • Sometimes coincidences tell you something useful. But 90 percent of the time they mislead you. Never be too confident about an opinion that depends solely on interpreting a coincidence.
  • If you are reaching a general conclusion about a big topic by looking at anecdotal evidence, you are engaging in loserthink.
  • Always ask yourself if the opposite of your theory could be true. Doing so keeps you humble and less susceptible to bias until you get to the truth of the situation.
  • Rarely is it possible to prove something isn’t true. But sometimes we can prove things are true.
  • Learn to think in microsteps. If you are experiencing couch lock, try wiggling one finger. Then build from there.
  • Sticking with what you know ensures you stay where you are. Take some chances. Leave your lane and build some skills.
  • Other notable authors in the getting-your-mind-right genre are Tony Robbins, Tim Ferriss, James Altucher, Seth Godin, and Mike Cernovich. I recommend any book by them.
  • You can learn to think like a rich person by consuming books, blog posts, and podcasts from the authors who can teach you how. If this sort of reading isn’t your thing, make it your thing, one microstep at a time.
  • Luck is attracted to action and energy; it doesn’t come looking for you on the couch.
  • Find a way to test your assumption in a small way so no one gets hurt.
  • If you think in terms of “the ends justifying the means” instead of “costs compared to benefits,” you are buying into loserthink.
  • If you have a strong opinion about a proposed plan but you have not compared it to the next best alternative, you are not part of a rational conversation.
  • your opinion considers only the benefits or only the costs of a plan, you might be in a mental prison.
  • A dollar you have today is worth a dollar. But a dollar you might get in the future, if things go as predicted (which is rare), is worth a lot less.
  • you have only one mortal risk, it might make sense to spend huge amounts of money to drive that risk to zero. But if you have multiple mortal risks, it might make more sense to allocate your money across several risks.
  • If you find yourself experiencing certainty in a complex situation, you are probably experiencing loserthink.
  • If you find yourself calling a plan problematic and you can’t give some reasonable-sounding examples to back up your opinion, you might be engaging in loserthink.
  • Arguing for fairness is loserthink because no two people will agree on what it looks like. The exception is when you are trying to persuade, in which case rationality matters less.
  • If you find that your best argument depends on the predictive or persuasive characteristics of analogies, you are likely in a mental prison of your own making.
  • Adding friction to any human choice will reduce the number of people making that choice. To assume otherwise is loserthink.
  • If your response to a disagreement is to assign your opponent a dismissive label, you have surrendered the moral and intellectual high ground to wallow in loserthink.
  • If someone does something you appreciate, it is loserthink to ask why it didn’t happen sooner.
  • The business model of the press guarantees you will see more negativity than the facts support. Things are often better than they seem, especially in the long run.
  • If you allow the opinions of unsuccessful people in your culture to hold you back, you’re engaged in loserthink. If you can learn to think of yourself as free from the cultural gravity of your peers, it will pay off in the long run.
  • If you don’t know the right way to do something, try doing it wrong, so long as it is not dangerous to do so.
  • Your first priority should be you. If you don’t take care of yourself first, you won’t be much use to anyone else. But hurry up—the world has lots of problems and maybe you can help.
  • To think more effectively, improve your fitness, diet, and sleeping.
  • It is loserthink to imagine you can accurately discern the intentions of public strangers. It is better to ask people to clarify their opinions and accept that as the best evidence of their inner thoughts.
  • It is loserthink to judge people by their much younger selves. People change. And they usually improve.
  • If your view of reality is consistent with the past but fails to do a good job predicting the near future, you might be in a cultlike organization with a manufactured worldview. If members of your group discourage you from listening to opposing views, it’s time to plan your escape.
  • Don’t play Whac-A-Mole with people who have laundry lists of reasons supporting their hallucinations. Ask for their strongest point only, and debunk it if you can. Target their undue confidence, not their entire laundry list.
  • Agree with people as much as you can without lying, and you will be in a better position to persuade.
  • Don’t argue in the weeds of a debate. Dismiss the trivial stuff and concentrate on the variables that matter. That gives you the high ground.
  • Ask people with opposing opinions to describe what the future would look like if their view of the world were to play out. Does it sound reasonable?
  • The best way to avoid the mind reading illusion is to look for it in others. That will prime you to better catch yourself when you do your own mind reading.

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